It’s déjà vu in the worst possible way for Italy. The four-time world champions, a nation steeped in footballing history and pride, once again find themselves staring down the barrel of World Cup uncertainty. With just a sliver of hope left for direct qualification and the haunting possibility of a third consecutive play-off heartbreak, Italy’s journey has become more than a sporting story; it’s an emotional saga of faith, resilience, and redemption.

Ever since that nightmare in Palermo in 2022, when North Macedonia ended Italy’s hopes of reaching Qatar, Azzurri fans have lived with a lingering fear, the fear of déjà vu. Now, with direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup hanging by a thread, that fear feels closer than ever. The maths is cruel: Italy’s chances of automatic qualification hover around 1%. One slip, one missed opportunity, and the nightmare of the play-offs could repeat itself.

But football isn’t played on calculators; it’s played with heart. And that’s where Italy’s 99% faith comes in.

Gennaro Gattuso has brought new life to the national team since taking charge. His Italy has shown flashes of brilliance, fluid attacking patterns, tactical flexibility, and a hunger to restore pride to the Azzurri badge. Yet inconsistency has been their biggest enemy. A draw where there should’ve been a win, a lapse in concentration where focus was needed most, those fine margins have left Italy hanging by a thread.

Still, Gattuso represents something Italy has desperately lacked in recent years: a sense of belief. Under him, players like Nicolò Barella, Federico Dimarco, and Andrea Cambiaso have rediscovered confidence, while young talents like Davide Frattesi and Pio Esposito have injected energy and fearlessness.

Italy’s fans, the tifosi, have every reason to be anxious, but even more reason to be hopeful. This team, though imperfect, has a spirit that echoes the values of Italian football: fight, flair, and faith.

Even if direct qualification proves out of reach, the Azzurri must hold onto the belief that they can overcome the pressure of the play-offs. The ghosts of 2018 and 2022 still haunt them, but this group has the chance to exorcise those demons once and for all.

Because Italy, when cornered, often becomes its best self. It’s what made them Euro 2020 champions against all odds. It’s what has defined their footballing identity for over a century, a team that thrives when the world doubts them most.

In truth, the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Yes, Italy’s chances on paper may be slim, but this team has something that statistics can’t measure: belief. Every training session, every fan’s chant, every second of added time still matters. Because for Italy, football isn’t just about qualification, it’s about redemption.

As the final two matchdays approach, the Azzurri faithful must cling to that faith. With games against Moldova and Norway to see out their group, they pray for a Norwegian slip-up as they maintain a 100% record throughout the campaign, as the Azzurri would need to put quite a margin on the Moldovans, and hope that Erling Haaland’s Norway slips up to Estonia, as well as Italy then defeating Norway on the final match day. But, whether it’s a miracle on the final day or a fight through the play-offs, Italy’s journey is far from over.

They’ve fallen before. But nations built on glory don’t stay down forever.

The road to 2026 may look impossible. But then again, Italy has made a habit of doing the impossible.